Like it or not, Germany’s premium brands are betting on electrification, and they’re doing so out of sheer necessity. Stringent European emissions targets are making sure of that. Automakers are on track to reach a fleet average of 130 grams of CO2 per kilometer by 2015, mandated by the European Union. The target of 95 grams by 2020, slightly more efficient than the 54.5 mpg proposed by the Obama administration, is “reachable,” engineers tell us. But beyond that, it gets tricky.
Politicians are floating the idea of reducing CO2 fleet emissions to between 68 and 78 grams by 2025. The cost of achieving such goals will be massively expensive, and it would require a huge fleet of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. In fact, an executive tells us that lowering CO2 emissions below the 95-gram target will require investment “at a factor of 50 to 100″ when compared to the price of CO2 on the E.U.’s emissions trade market.
For electric cars, Europe’s bureaucracy doesn’t account for the emissions created by the generation of the electricity powering EVs, stipulating that their CO2 emissions are zero. The testing cycle of plug-in hybrids consists of equal parts of operation with a depleted battery and full charge, and again, full-charge operation is considered to be zero emission. Plug-ins are expensive, but adding batteries and electric motors to otherwise-conventional cars is still more cost-effective than any other avenue in lowering consumption and emissions to Europe’s proposed ultra-low levels, making them the de facto solution to meeting Europe’s standards.
Prepare to see many more e-tron plug-in hybrids from Audi, not to mention BMW and Mercedes.
So it’s not surprising that BMW R&D board member Herbert Diess recently told British publication Autocar that, “Electrification will be a central thread in what we do, be it plug-in hybrid, hybrid, or full electrification.” He added that electric technology would be offered “on all standard models with entry-level electrification.” BMW is currently working on a new rear-wheel-drive platform, which will launch underneath the next-generation 7-series, and it is being designed to easily accommodate hybrid technology.
Diess’s strategy is reflected by comments from his colleagues at Audi and Mercedes-Benz. Audi R&D chief Ulrich Hackenberg told us recently that the next generation of the MLB architecture, which will underpin the next generation of models A4 and larger, will see “a lot of improvement and development in terms of material mix and possibilities for alternative powertrains, such as natural gas and electrification.”
“We have many ideas to target CO2 emission regulation: downsizing, downspeeding, electrification” Daimler R&D chief Thomas Weber tells us. ”We have to bring together fascination and efficiency.”
- First Drive: 2014 Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG Electric Drive
- First Drive: 2014 Volkswagen XL1
- First Drive: 2014 BMW i3
Speaking anonymously, some executives are dismayed. “Perhaps we should get aggressive and simply stop selling upmarket vehicles in Europe,” an executive at a premium German automaker says. “We’d keep building them for the rest of the world.”
It won’t happen, though. Electrics and plug-in hybrids will continue to gain favor in the political world and will continue their growth in both in Europe and the U.S. Virtually every premium car offered in Europe soon will be available with a form of electrification. And you can bet that they will be pushed onto the market aggressively.
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