I was amused to read the Ria Novosti report that the China Sukhoi
Su-35 deal is in trouble. Apparently the Russians want to sell China a large number
of aircraft, while China would prefer just a handful. And so an impasse ensues.
"We have been promoting the Su-35
fighter on the Chinese market," Rosoboronexport deputy chief Viktor
Komardin is reported as saying. "However,
China only wants to buy a limited number [of aircraft] whereas we want [to
sell] a large consignment to make [the deal] economically viable."
In this instance, how does one
define 'economically viable'? The cynical part of me suggests that China wants
to buy a handful (hints of Su-33?) and then reverse
engineer the aircraft, eventually producing a Chinese clone, a follow on
fighter to the J-11. This is economically viable for China, but not exactly
ideal for Russia.
On the other hand, Russia would
greatly benefit from a big Su-35 production run for China, lowering the cost
per unit across the board.
Though China appears to have dug
its heels in, I will be very curious to see how this proposed sale moves
forward. If Beijing feels confident enough in its indigenous capabilities,
perhaps it will indeed give the Su-35 a miss.
Otherwise, perhaps Beijing will
back off a bit, wait a sufficiently face-saving amount of time, and then eventually
agree to buy a larger number of Su-35s with a significant portion produced in
Russia. In this case it would get the
aircraft and technology transfer it needs, but at a substantially higher price.
It is worth remembering that in
2010, before Beijing surprised everyone with the appearance of the supposedly 'Fifth
Generation' J-20, an alleged Chinese spy was caught smuggling parts for the
MiG-29 and Su-27 across the Russo-Chinese
border. Another similar heist was
attempted in 2009 at the same checkpoint.
Such incidents would appear to
suggest that China would be very interested indeed in the secrets of the Su-35.
Su-35 deal is in trouble. Apparently the Russians want to sell China a large number
of aircraft, while China would prefer just a handful. And so an impasse ensues.
"We have been promoting the Su-35
fighter on the Chinese market," Rosoboronexport deputy chief Viktor
Komardin is reported as saying. "However,
China only wants to buy a limited number [of aircraft] whereas we want [to
sell] a large consignment to make [the deal] economically viable."
In this instance, how does one
define 'economically viable'? The cynical part of me suggests that China wants
to buy a handful (hints of Su-33?) and then reverse
engineer the aircraft, eventually producing a Chinese clone, a follow on
fighter to the J-11. This is economically viable for China, but not exactly
ideal for Russia.
On the other hand, Russia would
greatly benefit from a big Su-35 production run for China, lowering the cost
per unit across the board.
Though China appears to have dug
its heels in, I will be very curious to see how this proposed sale moves
forward. If Beijing feels confident enough in its indigenous capabilities,
perhaps it will indeed give the Su-35 a miss.
Otherwise, perhaps Beijing will
back off a bit, wait a sufficiently face-saving amount of time, and then eventually
agree to buy a larger number of Su-35s with a significant portion produced in
Russia. In this case it would get the
aircraft and technology transfer it needs, but at a substantially higher price.
It is worth remembering that in
2010, before Beijing surprised everyone with the appearance of the supposedly 'Fifth
Generation' J-20, an alleged Chinese spy was caught smuggling parts for the
MiG-29 and Su-27 across the Russo-Chinese
border. Another similar heist was
attempted in 2009 at the same checkpoint.
Such incidents would appear to
suggest that China would be very interested indeed in the secrets of the Su-35.
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