The dramatic growth in regional flying, especially of the 50-seat jet variety during the late 1990s through early 2000s, was nothing short of impressive. Nevertheless, totally regional jet flying in the US appears to have topped out over the past few years. Here’s a chart of total block hours of major regional jets at US carriers over the past few years (2011 isn’t included because all of the data hasn’t come out yet):
A quick look at this graph leads to a few interesting points/questions/things to consider:
- If so many 50-seat regional jets weren’t tied up in long-term, multi-year contracts, how many would still be flying today to support mainline flying?
- While larger regional jets certainly have an increased presence in the US industry than they did a few years ago, 50-seaters still dominate the landscape. Will scope clauses at mainline carriers continue to relax to allow for more of these aircraft to enter the market, or might management and labor find a way to bring this flying in-house? (The latter isn’t the most likely scenario but it’s worth considering.)
- If oil prices were to keep on rising, let’s say to $120 for hypothetical, how much further would regional jet flying be reduced?
- What happens to all the 50-seaters as more and more come off contract over the coming years? Obviously exactly what happens depends on the economy, oil prices, etc., but still interesting to consider.
- What replaces 50-seaters as they age? The only regional jets in production right now are of the larger variety, and the only aircraft in the 50-seat area that’s currently in production (that I can think of) is the ATR 42.
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