Auto-drive, not electrification, is the key to the future of the auto industry
Reinventing personal mobility might be too disruptive for major automakers
In many ways the Big 3 are back. While in the short term, that’s good news for US manufacturing, is it really good news long term? Or, are major automakers simply driving down a dead end road?
To be sure, US manufacturers are embracing fuel efficiency more than ever, and that is a good thing. But, is the car as we know it already dead, and might that simply be too much for the US auto industry to handle?
Back in the ’90’s the US auto industry basically perfected hybrid cars. GM even owned a good chunk of the battery technology needed by hybrids. Inevitably, GM sold the battery technology and none of the Big 3 took hybrids very seriously. Why? Gas guzzling – amidst cheap oil prices – sold in the US and the profit margins were huge. Why worry about tomorrow when today is so good?
Even as the gas spike of 2008 was heating up, a high level GM exec told me that GM forecasts had predicted the possibility of such a gas spike as was experienced in 2008. The probability, however, just wasn’t worth the investment.
Today, the Big 3 have learned a lot from the fuel efficient mistakes of the past and they are changing. But, has the game already changed beyond fuel efficiency? Is the end game really about electrification, for instance? Or, might electrification be only a piece of the automotive future?
Google, for instance, seems to believe that computers are the key to automobiles and personal transportation. Computers can predict patterns, for example, resulting in greater driving efficiencies. As a result, small battery plug-in vehicles might be able to utilize energy in the most efficient manner possible based upon past driving patterns, increasing battery-powered cost-effectiveness. Couple this capability with car-to-car communications, etc., and traffic can be avoided, for example, also increasing efficiency and safety.
But, really, that’s only the beginning of the computer’s impact on the car.
Ultimately, human error is the main cause of accidents and transportation-related deaths. Not only are these transportation accidents costly, but they also lead to ever more safety requirements, increases in vehicle weight and size, etc. – all at extra cost and decreased fuel economy.
Auto-drive, on the other hand, could instantly make cars much safer, enabling lighter and more fuel efficient vehicles – significantly increasing fuel economy without any extra costs. In fact, vehicle costs would be reduced. Yet, that’s only scratching the surface of what auto-drive can make possible.
If you don’t have to drive, then commuting becomes a time for many other functions, including increased productivity. In fact, if you don’t have to drive, do you really need to own a car? Do you need to upgrade your ride every few years?
And, that’s the crux of the matter.
Is a US auto industry producing 15 million vehicles per year for US consumption really an efficient utilization of resources? Is it really the future, even if we plug-in all those 15 million vehicles? By thinking outside the automotive box, might the US not be able to achieve energy independence and reduce traffic fatalities dramatically and quickly?
Already, 50 percent of Americans have suggested they would like self-driving cars according to some surveys. Even more noteworthy, Generation Y and the future of the auto industry, is showing less and less interest in automobiles and driving. Give ‘em a cheap Facebook-on-wheels transportation option and owning a car might become almost irrelevant overnight for this age cohort.
Ironically, major automakers like GM have many of the tools – just as they did with hybrids – to make such a transportation reality come true far sooner than most might believe possible, but do they want such a future any time soon? Unfortunately, the real question might be, do they have any choice?
For now, I’d bet Google would prefer to stay on the telematics side of this automotive equation, but I’d also bet they won’t sit idle for long.
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