Charleston Final Assembly Line On Target
767 Repositioning Allows Permanent Second 787 In Everett
Plans To Boost Production Beyond 10 Units A Month
Question Marks Still Hang Over 787-10 Variant
In what could be an almost unprecedented move for Boeing, the surge line earmarked for Everett WA would not just provide transitional capacity and capability until 787′s start rolling off of the Boeing South Carolina plant, but its existence alongside the main 787 line means that its presence may just become a permanent fixture there too.
Irrespective of whether Boeing seals the oft-delayed KC-X tanker contract, the moving of the 767 line to a much smaller footprint now allows Everett to host two 787 lines, side by side, capable of churning out either 787-8′s or 787-9′s. It’s my assessment that vacating this space makes it worthwhile expanding 787 capability at Everett to ease the pressure at Charleston, which by default will have a steep learning curve to surmount.
With Boeing bringing more work back in-house on the bigger 787-9 variant, it is now highly unlikely that the surge line will be phased out as had previously been envisaged.
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Critically, the aim to ramp up rates towards ten units per month by 2013 still remains a key focus. While it is unlikely that that rate will be reached in that timeframe given the elongated knock on effects of three years worth of delays, the longer term goal is to push 787 output beyond the ten per month goal through use of the surge line.
Equally important here are pressures to the already pressurised 787 supply base. While Spirit AeroSystems proves to be a reliable partner, other companies in the Tier One banding for 787 components may struggle to keep up with Boeing’s planned expansion.
For example, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), responsible for the 787 wings, has often stated that it cannot physically go beyond seven wing ship sets per month with its current factory capacity and tooling capability – it has for now ruled out additional expansion funding on the grounds that its revenue stream for the 787 won’t kick in until deliveries are realised. If Boeing plans to push beyond ten units per month (mooted to be fourteen or more), it is inevitable that we’ll see MHI making some sort of capital investment to support the intended growth sooner rather than later.
By far the biggest risk to the 787 ramp up remains Alenia.
Boeing will have to mitigate against this by either buying out the Alenia-787 operation or installing a higher number of workers to scrutinise production potential as well as increase quality control.
As Airbus continues to hold off from making public the first round of confirmed delays to the A350XWB program, Boeing wants to capitalise with its two-pronged rate hike with the 777 and now with a third line for the 787.
Given its record 787 backlog, the cost overruns, compensation payments and delays to customer deliveries, the goal of going beyond ten per months across three production lines makes sense – but only if executed correctly.
While past performance in this regard is not well viewed – the expectation that Boeing will use the vacated 767 factory space for the 787 on a permanent basis equally allows expansion of the family line-up once the 787-9 assembly starts.
Naturally a 787-10 would seem to fit the bill, but with customers not yet firm about whether they want more range or more capacity, particularly in the absence of a true 777-200ER replacement (in the traditional sense), that job may still end up with the 787-9 whose comparable range and seating begs the question as to whether a further stretch is even warranted.
For now, it seems that the silence on the surge line will be met with its permanence – it is more likely than not that it will stay firmly where it is once it is up and running. And with IAM discussions next year, there is much more incentive for both unions and Boeing to thrash out a long term deal and avoid the painful strikes endured in 2008 – especially since there is also the big question of where the 737X family will be built.
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